International Conflict 

“(Nuclear) Change of Plans: What Explains Nuclear Reversals?” 
with Benjamin T. Jones  International Interactions, 42.3 (2016): 530--585
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2016.1115760 ManuscriptGated VersionAppendix 
“Explaining Volatile Foreign Policy Behavior” 
When we think of states' foreign policy behavior, we focus on explaining either cooperation (i.e., treaty signing, IO joining, etc.)  or conflict (i.e. dispute initiation, crisis recurrence, etc.). Yet states often engage in both types of behavior, in self-defeating ways. I propose a theory of volatile foreign policy behavior, which I test with original data.

“The Domestic Determinants of US Counter Proliferation Policy Through Time” 
This paper theorizes the conditions under which the US decides to rely on both carrots and sticks in its counterproliferation policy, arguing that the roots of this portfolio diversification are to be found in its domestic politics.

Civil Wars

“A Manifesto, in 140 Characters or Fewer: Social Media as a Tool of Rebel Diplomacy in the Libyan Civil War” 
with Benjamin T. Jones, First View, British Journal of Political Science
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123416000612 Manuscript; Gated Version; Appendix 
“Food Scarcity and State Vulnerability: Unpacking the Link Between Climate Variability and Violent Unrest” 
with Bear F. Braumoeller and Benjamin T. Jones, Journal of Peace Research, 54.3 (2017): 335--350.  
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316684662 
ManuscriptGated VersionAppendix; Blog Post

“Keeping Vigil: The Emergence of Vigilance Committees in Pre-Civil War America" 
with Jonathan M. Obert, Forthcoming, Perspectives on PoliticsManuscript; Appendix